‘The Situation is Dire’: Conflict on Iran Constricts India's LPG Stock.
The repercussions of a conflict being fought nearly 3,000km away are now impacting India's homes.
As aerial attacks on Iran impede energy shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, stocks of kitchen fuel are tightening across India, forcing restaurants to shorten food lists, shorten hours and in some cases cease operations entirely.
Social media is awash with video clips showing lines outside LPG distributors across Indian urban and rural areas as worries over fuel supplies escalate. Restaurant kitchens appear the most affected: the most severe shortage is in food service establishments.
"The state of affairs is alarming. Cooking gas simply is unavailable," says a spokesperson of the National Restaurant Association of India.
Most restaurants run either on business-grade gas tanks or direct gas lines, and the shortages are now being felt across the country. "Many restaurants have closed - some in the capital, many in the southern region. People are turning to solid fuels and electronic appliances to keep food preparation going."
City-Specific Fallout
In a financial hub, local news say up to a 20% of hotels and restaurants are already fully or partly shut as cylinder availability dwindle. In the southern cities of tech and coastal hubs, some restaurants say their fuel reserves have shrunk with little backup. "Our menu is reduced to coffee and no other dishes - it is nothing less than pathetic. Operations will be impacted," says a restaurant owner in Bengaluru.
Restaurant operators are scrambling to adapt. "Menus are being curtailed, some are cutting lunch service and reducing hours," an industry representative says, adding that shutdowns are changing as supplies ebb and flow. "A number of eateries in Delhi were shut yesterday - a couple are back in business. It's a changing landscape."
Retailers note a spike in sales of electric cookers, with some saying they are facing stockouts.
Authority's View
Yet, the authorities insists there is adequate supply.
India has more than a vast number of household consumers and spokespersons say stocks are being reallocated to households as geopolitical strain from the Middle East conflict impact energy markets.
Approximately a majority of India's LPG is imported, and about 90% of those consignments pass through the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow Gulf chokepoint now significantly disrupted by the hostilities.
The oil ministry says that it ordered refineries to boost LPG output for domestic use, raising domestic production by about 25%. Business-grade fuel is being reserved for essential sectors such as hospitals and educational institutions, while distribution will be "equitable and clear".
"A degree of anxious stocking and hoarding has been triggered by false reports. The normal delivery cycle for household cylinders remains about 60 hours," says a ministry representative.
Spreading Anxiety
Now the worry is spreading beyond kitchens. On digital platforms, a widely shared video from Chennai shows a extended procession of two-wheelers outside a petrol pump. "The panic is real," the description reads.
According to data from energy specialists, concerns about India's broader fuel supplies may be premature.
India imports 90% of its petroleum. Around 50% of its crude oil imports - about 2.5-2.7 million barrels a day - travel through the passage, largely from Gulf countries.
Even if petroleum transit through the Strait of Hormuz are blocked, the shortfall could be partly offset by higher imports of Russian petroleum, according to a sector expert.
Based on shipping data and expert analysis, incremental Russian crude imports could reach around a significant volume of barrels a day, reducing India's effective gap from exposure to the Strait of Hormuz to about a substantial volume of barrels a day.
"A large quantity of Russian oil barrels are currently on the water in the Indian Ocean and, with only key buyers as major buyers, those barrels remain a available backup," an analyst noted.
LPG: The Real Vulnerability
The primary concern is cooking gas, analysts say.
India consumes roughly a million barrels a day, but produces only 40-45% domestically, importing the rest - 80–90% through the Strait.
Refineries can modify output to squeeze out a bit more LPG, but even a moderate increase would only increase domestic supply to about under half of demand, leaving the country heavily reliant on imports.
In short: "Petroleum shortage concerns can be partially mitigated through varied suppliers. Fuel availability remains fairly adequate. Cooking gas supply is the real variable to monitor in the coming weeks."
What may be heightening the panic on the ground is not just tight supply but patchy deliveries - and the usual problem of hoarding.
An industry representative states price gouging.
"Retailers are exploiting the situation - black-marketing cylinders and selling them at a premium. In one small town, I heard of cylinders being hoarded and auctioned off."
For now, India's oil supplies may be cushioned by international market dynamics. But in homes across the country, the more immediate question is simple: how to get the next refill.
