Keir Starmer's Supporters Launch 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return
Loyalists of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly started a concerted campaign to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming byelection.
Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Procedure
A number of members on the Labour Party's powerful national executive committee (NEC) have apparently predicted it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The party apparatus is said to have mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is passionate about his current role and would only re-enter Westminster if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a supporter stated.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, several obstacles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform UK and independent candidates, all before any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Costs and Risks
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also shared concerns about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the body could impose an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.
However, a supporter warned against assuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, sources indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
Electoral Challenges
The constituency in question has a sizable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is expected to launch a strong challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
If Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an inappropriate online group.
