A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Debates encompass flags and symbols, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."