How Trump Secured a Gaza Breakthrough That Escaped Biden
At first, Israel's air strike on the Hamas militant negotiating team in Qatar appeared like yet another intensification that pushed the hope of a ceasefire out of reach.
This strike on September 9 violated the sovereignty of an American ally and risked expanding the hostilities into a broader regional conflict.
Diplomacy seemed to be collapsing.
Instead, it turned out to be a key moment that culminated in a deal, announced by Donald Trump, to release all captives still held.
This is a objective that Trump, and Joe Biden previously, had pursued for almost 24 months.
This marks just the first step towards a lasting resolution, and the details of Hamas disarmament, Gaza governance and full Israeli withdrawal remain to be worked out.
Yet if this agreement holds, it could be Donald Trump's defining accomplishment of his second term - one that eluded Joe Biden and his diplomatic team.
The president's unique style and crucial relationships with the Israeli government and the Middle Eastern nations seem to have played a role in this success.
However, as with many foreign policy wins, there were also factors involved beyond the control of both leaders.
Strong Ties That Eluded Biden
In public, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are all smiles.
The president likes to say that Israel has no better friend, and the Israeli leader has called Trump as Israel's "most supportive friend in the White House". Moreover these warm words have been matched by actions.
During his initial time in office, the president relocated the US embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to the contested capital and discarded a traditional American stance that Jewish communities in the Palestinian West Bank are against international law, the position under global norms.
After the Israeli military began its bombing campaign against Iran in June, Trump directed American aircraft to target the Iran's atomic sites with its largest non-nuclear weapons.
These visible shows of backing may have allowed the president the leeway to apply more pressure on Israel in private. According to reports, Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, browbeat the prime minister in late 2024 into accepting a halt in fighting in return for the freeing of a number of captives.
After Israel launched strikes against Syria's military in July, including bombing a Christian church, the US president pressured Netanyahu to change course.
The leader exhibited a level of determination and pressure on an Israeli prime minister that is virtually unprecedented, says Aaron David Miller of the a think tank. "There is no example of an US leader literally telling an Israeli leader that they must agree or else."
Joe Biden's relationship with Netanyahu's government was consistently more tenuous.
The Biden team's "close embrace strategy" held that the United States had to embrace Israel publicly in order to allow it to moderate the country's military actions behind closed doors.
Beneath this was the president's decades-long of support for Israel, as well as deep disagreements within his political base over the Gaza War. Every step the leader took risked fracturing his own political backing, whereas his successor's loyal conservative voters provided him more room to act.
Ultimately, internal considerations or individual ties may have had little impact than the simple fact that, during his term, Israel was not ready to make peace.
Several months into Trump's second term, with the Islamic Republic weakened, the militant group to its immediate north significantly reduced and Gaza devastated, all its key military goals had been accomplished.
Commercial Background Helped Secure Support from Arab States
An Israeli strike in the Qatari capital, which killed a local national but not the intended targets, prompted the president to issue an final demand to Netanyahu. The war had to end.
The US leader had given Israel a significant latitude in Gaza. The president lent US armed support to Israeli operations in Iran. However an strike on Qatari territory was a separate issue entirely, moving him closer to the Arab position on how best to conclude the conflict.
A number of administration figures have told the press that this was a turning point which galvanised the leader to exert maximum pressure to get a peace deal done.
This US president's strong connections with the Arab monarchies are well documented. Trump has commercial interests with the emirate and the UAE. The president began each of his administrations with state visits to the kingdom. This year, he also visited in Qatar and Abu Dhabi.
The president's Abraham Accords, which established ties between Israel and a number of Arab nations, including the UAE, was the biggest foreign policy success of his first term.
The time devoted in the cities of the Arabian Peninsula earlier this year contributed to change his thinking, says an expert of the Council on Foreign Relations. Trump did not visit the country on this Middle East trip but visited the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and the state where he heard repeated calls to bring an end to the conflict.
Within weeks after that Israeli strike on Doha, Trump was present close as the prime minister personally phoned Qatar to express regret. And later that day, the Israeli leader signed off on the president's 20-point peace plan for Gaza - one that also had the backing of influential Arab states in the region.
If Trump's relationship with Netanyahu gave him the room to pressure Israel to reach an agreement, his history with Arab rulers may have ensured their backing, and helped them persuade the group to agree to the deal.
"A key factor that evidently occurred was that the US leader developed leverage with the Israelis, and indirectly with Hamas," notes Jon Alterman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
"This was crucial. His ability to do this on his timing, and not succumb to the desires of the combatants has been a problem that many previous presidents have struggled with, and he appears to handle relatively successfully."
The fact that the president is much more popular in Israel than Netanyahu himself was an advantage that Trump used to his benefit, he adds.
Currently Israel has agreed to freeing over a thousand detainees imprisoned in its jails and has agreed to a partial withdrawal from the strip.
The group will release all the remaining hostages, both alive and deceased, taken during the original 7 October assault, which caused the loss of more than 1,200 Israeli citizens.
An end to the war, which has led to the devastation of Gaza and the deaths of more than 67,000 {Palestinians|Pal