Daily Homicides in Mexico Fall 37% Under Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Government Statistics

The mean figure of everyday murders monthly in the country has decreased by 37% since President Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, as stated by new administrative figures. However, security specialists have cautioned that homicide data could fail to point to improved countrywide stability.

Marked Reduction in Daily Averages

Officials reported an average of almost 55 homicides a day in last November versus roughly 87 when Claudia Sheinbaum assumed the presidential office in September of last year. This data was shared by the director of the nation's national safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily press briefing on a recent Tuesday.

“The figures in murders that we have seen in these months is extremely significant,” the President remarked, explaining that last month the smallest number of homicides were documented for any single November in the past 10 years.

Recent Background and Official Strategy

Intense organized crime infighting, coupled with the administration's highly militarised efforts to combat the cartels, have caused Mexico’s homicide rate escalate in recent years. The rate peaked at a peak of 36,773 homicides in 2020, per the country’s national statistics agency.

That gave Mexico a homicide rate over 4x greater than the US. Since then, homicides have been on the decline, dropping to 33,550 the previous year. The President has credited her public safety plan for an apparently sharper drop in homicides in the current year.

At a press conference in the summer, the President stated: “There is a plan, there is tracking of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking town by town in certain cases. The strategy functions. And we have to keep working at it every day.”

The key elements of the President's safety strategy include:

• Bolstering Mexico’s national guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigation efforts.
• Increased cooperation between government authorities.

Expert Skepticism and Statistical Concerns

Nevertheless, security analysts urged caution that using murder data to assess the situation of improved security was problematic. This is notably true considering the increase in other criminal activities such as people going missing.

“That would be very good news if this was a decrease, but I think we shouldn't just concentrate on the homicide data and think: ‘Alright, good,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an authority on Mexican cartels. “I would be guardedly optimistic.”

As reported by the public policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, murders overall declined by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe the previous year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have surged by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is no longer reliable for assessing the reality of violence,” said Armando Vargas, a security expert at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the ability or the will to correctly recognize and classify corpses. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas pointed out that using month-to-month means of daily killings was additionally an issue because it could obscure periods when there were particularly spiking numbers of killings.

“Relying on the daily average makes spikes of violent crime less visible,” he concluded.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Progress

Where the administration can cite the effectiveness of its safety plan is on detentions and confiscations. Close to 40,000 suspects were apprehended between October 2024 and November 2025 for serious offenses, per official data. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“The former US president can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, thousands of seizures, and all the operational degrading of criminal groups. It’s very politically beneficial,” stated Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Societal Anger

Yet in spite of these efforts, Mexico continues to be beset by extreme violence, with several regions in the midst of cartel-driven conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent killing of a well-liked local official in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors assassinated in the past 12 months.

Weeks after, many thousands of protesters demonstrated in Mexico City and throughout the nation to express their outrage at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to construct a picture of security. Politically it’s very successful, from a social perspective it’s highly debatable,” the analyst remarked.