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On the exact day Donald Trump received a tailor-made "peace prize" from his recent ally, FIFA president "Gianni" Infantino, his administration released an equally flamboyant national security strategy. This fairly brief report is saturated with the essence of Trump and Trumpism. It opens with the typically humble assertion that the president has brought back "our nation – and the world – back from the edge of disaster and ruin."

Even though the document largely formalizes the ongoing actions and statements of Trump and his cabinet, it must be taken as a serious caution for the world, and for the European continent specifically.

A Blueprint of Intervention and Civilizational Fear

The document advocates for an assertive form of foreign-policy meddling where the US clearly sets the goal of "promoting European strength." Its rhetoric could have been taken straight from speeches by the Hungarian Prime Minister during the much-discussed refugee crisis of 2015-16: "Our desire is for Europe to stay European, to reclaim its civilizational self-assurance." More worryingly, the document claims that Europe's "economic decline is overshadowed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure."

The entire section dedicated to Europe is imbued with decades of European right-wing ideology and propaganda. The EU and its migration policies are held responsible for "transforming the continent and creating conflict, censorship of free speech and suppression of political opposition, plummeting birthrates, and loss of sovereign identity and self-belief." Per the document, if "current trajectories continue, the continent will be unrecognisable in 20 years or less. As such, it is far from obvious whether certain European countries will have economies and armed forces strong enough to remain dependable allies." In fact, the Trump administration believes that "within a few decades at the latest, some NATO members will become predominantly non-European."

"U.S. foreign policy should continue to champion authentic democracy, free speech, and proud celebrations of European nations’ individual character and history."

Foundational Theories of the Far Right

These points carry powerful echoes of two theories regarded as foundational for modern right-wing circles. The first is Oswald Spengler's "The Decline of the West," whose thesis on the inevitable fall of civilizations was employed by the German far right to criticise the "perversion" and "weakness" of the democratic Weimar Republic. The second is "Le Grand Remplacement," published in 2011 by French novelist Renaud Camus, who transformed long-existing "indigenous" fears into a more explicit conspiracy theory, accusing European elites of using immigration to substitute restive "native" populations and import a more submissive and reliant electorate.

It is the nationalist fantasy contained in both ideas that grants the Trump administration the right, if not the obligation, to intervene in European affairs, the document suggests. And it is clear where it sees its allies: "The United States encourages its ideological partners in Europe to advance this revival of national spirit, and the increasing influence of nationalist European parties indeed gives cause for significant hope."

The Goal: "Restore European Greatness"

In other words, the US believes that it is essential to its national security to "Restore European strength," and that the European far right is the only movement that can achieve this. Therefore, its "broad policy for Europe" focuses on "cultivating resistance to Europe’s present path within European nations" – meaning the far right – and "strengthening the healthy nations of central, eastern, and southern Europe" – specifically "nations in agreement that want to restore their former greatness" – such as Hungary and Italy.

While the document remains unclear on methods, it is obvious that a key aim is to push Europe to adopt a sweeping policy on freedom of speech, closer to the US model – particularly regarding right-wing speech – and not limited to social media. Another is to normalize relations with Russia; or, as the document phrases it, to "reestablish strategic stability with Russia." Although the country is not directly called a future ally, the Trump administration clearly does not regard Russia as an enemy either.

An Ideological Blueprint: The Monroe Doctrine

In a broader sense, the national security strategy takes its inspiration less from the idealized US of the 1950s and more from the 1823 policy of 1823. Proclaimed by President James Monroe, this cautioned European powers not to interfere in the "western hemisphere," which he proclaimed to be the US’s sphere of interest. The Trump administration’s policy document promises to "assert and enforce a Trump addition" to the Monroe Doctrine, which involves the US "enlisting" countries worldwide that wish to help protect US national interests.

This is entirely new – consider JD Vance’s speech at the 2025 Munich Security Conference, where the vice-president unleashed an assault on Europe’s democratic model. But maybe now that it is published in an formal document, European leaders will at last realize that the stance is serious. And if the document is too long or imprecise for them, it can be summarised in clear and concise terms: the current US government believes that its national security is best served by the demise of liberal democracy in Europe. In other words, the US is not just an reluctant ally; it is a willing adversary. Now is time to act accordingly.